Enrolment projections – South Australian federal redistribution

Updated: 30 October 2017

Enrolment projections overview

Projected enrolment quota

The projected enrolment quota is calculated by dividing the projected number of people enrolled in South Australia at the projection time by the number of members of the House of Representatives to which South Australia is entitled.

Estimated total number of electors enrolled in South Australia at the projection time (Thursday 20 January 2022)  1,227,310
Number of members of the House of Representatives to which South Australia is entitled 10
Projected enrolment quota for South Australia  122,731
Permissible maximum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota + 3.5%)  127,026
Permissible minimum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota – 3.5%)  118,436

Enrolment projections for South Australia: by electoral division, SA2 and SA1

Enrolment projections as at Thursday 20 January 2022 for each electoral division in South Australia by Statistical Area 2 (SA2) and Statistical Area 1 (SA1). The percentage growth is also indicated.

Please note the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) is an area defined in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), and consists of one or more whole Statistical Areas Level 1 (SA1s). Wherever possible SA2s are based on officially gazetted State/Territory suburbs and localities. In urban areas SA2s largely conform to whole suburbs and combinations of whole suburbs, while in rural areas they define functional zones of social and economic links. Geography is also taken into account in SA2 design.

The SA1s and SA2s used for this redistribution are those which applied at the 2011 Census of Population and Housing.

Appendix 1: South Australia small area population projections

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used for producing population and enrolment projections for all Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) in South Australia, from June 2017 to June 2023.

Appendix 2: Projection methods for South Australia, Statistical Area 2s (SA2s) and Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) – more details

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gives a more detailed breakdown of the three tiered approach outlined in Appendix 1. The report outlines projection methods for South Australia, Statistical Area 2s (SA2s) and Statistical Area 1s (SA1s).

Appendix 3: Conversion of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Population Projections to Enrolment Projections

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used to calculate enrolment projections for each Statistical Area Level 1 (SA1).

Differences between federal and state/territory electoral rolls

There is a federal electoral roll and an electoral roll for each state and territory. This is because each jurisdiction in Australia has their own electoral legislation, with electors subject to both federal and state/territory legislative requirements which may differ. It is these legislative differences which cause roll divergence. The causes of roll divergence can be categorised into two types:

  • divergence caused by differences in qualifications and disqualifications for enrolment and voting, and
  • divergence caused by differences in the process undertaken to enrol and maintain the currency of enrolment details.

Either type of divergence may result in an elector being enrolled for electoral events at one government level but not the other, or enrolled at different addresses for different levels of government.

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