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Australian Electoral Commission
The deadline for ‘declaration votes’ to be received back by the AEC has now passed as of midnight last night, with all votes that can be counted in the election now in the AEC’s possession and in transit to relevant local counting centres across Australia.
The small, final quantities of votes that were received yesterday were of course votes cast from overseas locations and via the post in rural or overseas locations. Every effort is always invested to receive back as many completed votes as possible prior to the legislated deadline – AEC staff were doing specific collections at airports with flights landing last night with final dispatches from overseas localities.
In most seats, counting activity will mostly pause over the weekend while the last arriving final batches are distributed around the country to their home electoral division and then these declaration votes will undergo preliminary scrutiny and then if admitted, counted on Monday. This is then followed by the full distribution of preferences counts that must be undertaken in all 150 House of Representatives electoral divisions (regardless of the final result being long established in the vast majority of those divisions).
A full distribution of preferences has not been able to occur in any House of Representatives division as yet because it requires every single vote to be available. This is why they can only occur from Monday (following yesterday’s legislated deadline for the receipt of final postal and overseas votes).
The distribution of preferences is the full, formal preferential count for a House of Representatives division that is required under the legislation. It involves multiple rounds of counting in which the candidate with the lowest number of votes is excluded one by one, with their votes then allocated to other candidates according to the preferences expressed by voters on each ballot paper.
These counts are expected to produced final margins that are the same as, or very similar, the final margins in completed two-candidate preferred counts undertaken over the past two weeks. Minor changes to those margins will be mostly attributable to different judgements on formality.
In seats with larger numbers of candidates and more complicated counts (as well as close counts with lots of scrutineer presence), this process is expected to take at least most of the week.
Bradfield: Bradfield has a particularly small margin on the two-candidate preferred count. A small final count of ballot papers in that count on Monday will be swiftly followed by the full distribution of preferences – a process that will determine the final count margin. Any considerations of a recount will not occur until after that process is finalised.
Goldstein: The two-candidate preferred margin in Goldstein has been tightening throughout the past few days with lots of commentary about the likely eventual winner. Many electoral experts have communicated their interpretation of the AEC’s result data in recent days by suggesting who that winner will be.
The AEC will be continuing with our legislated counting processes, as we do in every House of Representatives division.
Calwell: Calwell has thirteen candidates with many candidates achieving similar, and high levels, of first preference totals. This meant that a two-candidate preferred count has not been possible to conduct. It also means that the full distribution of preferences count commencing early next week will likely be the most complex in Australia’s history. This process will take time.
The AEC has a policy of conducting a full recount for any seat in which the final margin, after the full distribution of preferences, is less than 100 votes. This last occurred in the seat of Herbert in 2016.
Candidates may write to the AEC to request a recount in seats in which the margin is above 100 votes. A full recount of a seat is an expensive, time-consuming, and serious endeavour. In addition, the standard process for counting the votes in a House of Representatives division has seen ballot papers be reviewed three times already, and in the presence of candidate-appointed scrutineers. As such, candidates or political parties who request a recount are required to present the AEC with compelling evidence for why a recount should be conducted.
The AEC will carefully consider any requests for recounts that are received in accordance with s279 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act.
While many House of Representatives division results have long been established based on official AEC count data, formal seat declaration events are a legislated part of the process. These are occurring progressively.
Details of seat and Senate declarations become available progressively on the declaration of polls webpage.
While most Senate positions have been known for some time, the finalisation of the Senate count provides confirmation and clarity on all successful candidates.
The Senate counting process involves the capture and manual validation of hundreds of millions of individual preferences on Senate ballot papers – a process that is open to candidate-appointed scrutineers. The Australian Senate count is one of the most intensive and complex electoral counts in the world.
The capture and validation of Senate preferences is well advanced across every state and territory. It is anticipated that final results for all Senate contests will be known in the weeks commencing 26 May and 2 June respectively (with territories and smaller states ahead of larger jurisdictions).
Resources:
Media access to counting centres: A good level of access to counting imagery and footage was provided to media representatives on election night. The AEC will not approve media requests to film or take photographs inside counting centres at this time but will consider such requests should interest in close seats continue or if there is a formal recount process initiated.
The AEC acknowledges the Traditional Owners of country throughout Australia and recognises their continuing connection to land, waters, culture and community. We pay our respects to Elders past, present and emerging.