Enrolment projections - Victorian federal redistribution

Updated: 16 September 2020

Projection time

The projection time for a redistribution is calculated in accordance with section 63A of the Electoral Act.

The “starting time” to calculate is the date when the augmented Electoral Commission will cause the names and boundaries of electoral divisions in Victoria to be published in the Gazette.

For this redistribution, the starting time is 26 July 2021.

The standard projection time of three years and six months will apply for this redistribution.

The projection time for this redistribution is therefore 26 January 2025.

Projected enrolment quota

The projected enrolment quota is calculated by dividing the projected number of people enrolled in Victoria at the projection time by the number of members of the House of Representatives to which Victoria is entitled.


Estimated total number of electors enrolled in Victoria at the projection time (Sunday 26 January 2025)

4,567,191

Number of members of the House of Representatives to which Victoria is entitled

39

Projected enrolment quota for Victoria

117,107

Permissible maximum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota + 3.5%)

121,205

Permissible minimum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota – 3.5%)

113,009

Enrolment projections for Victoria: by electoral division, SA2 and SA1

Enrolment on the day the redistribution commenced, together with enrolment projections as at Sunday 26 January 2025, for each electoral division in Victoria by Statistical Area 2 (SA2) and Statistical Area 1 (SA1). The percentage growth is also indicated.

Please note the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) is an area defined in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), and consists of one or more whole Statistical Areas Level 1 (SA1s). Wherever possible SA2s are based on officially gazetted State/Territory suburbs and localities. In urban areas SA2s largely conform to whole suburbs and combinations of whole suburbs, while in rural areas they define functional zones of social and economic links. Geography is also taken into account in SA2 design.

The SA1s and SA2s used for this redistribution are those which applied at the 2016 Census of Population and Housing.

Victoria small area population and enrolment projections

This paper, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used for producing Victoria’s projected enrolment at Sunday 26 January 2025 by electoral divisions and SA1.

Explanatory notes

This paper, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, provides some information about SA1 population estimates.

Differences between federal and state/territory electoral rolls

There is a federal electoral roll and an electoral roll for each state and territory. This is because each jurisdiction in Australia has their own electoral legislation, with electors subject to both federal and state/territory legislative requirements which may differ. It is these legislative differences which cause roll divergence. The causes of roll divergence can be categorised into two types:

  • divergence caused by differences in qualifications and disqualifications for enrolment and voting, and
  • divergence caused by differences in the process undertaken to enrol and maintain the currency of enrolment details.

Either type of divergence may result in an elector being enrolled for electoral events at one government level but not the other, or enrolled at different addresses for different levels of government.

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