National seat status

Updated: 10 June 2016

This fact sheet lists the seat status for all federal electoral divisions leading up to the 2016 federal election.

How is seat status defined?

Each electoral division (seat) is classified in terms of its seat status. Seat status is based on the two-party preferred vote (TPP) count undertaken at the previous federal election. The TPP count in each seat allocates preferences to the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and Liberal/National Coalition (Coalition) candidates only.

As detailed below, a seat where the final two candidates does not comprise both an ALP and Coalition candidate is referred to as a ‘non classic’ seat and a two-candidate preferred (TCP) count is conducted.

The AEC classifies seats as follows:

  • marginal (M): when the leading party receives less than 56 per cent of the TPP vote
  • fairly safe (FS): when leading party receives between 56-60 per cent of the TPP vote
  • safe (S): when a leading party receives more than 60 per cent of the TPP vote.

Seats in the House of Representatives

The number of seats to be elected in the House of Representatives at the 2016 federal election was determined by the Electoral Commissioner in November 2014 using official population figures.

A total of 150 seats will be contested at the 2016 federal election for the House of Representatives. This is the same number as at the 2013 federal election, however, NSW’s entitlement decreased by one seat and WA’s entitlement increased by one seat.

State/ territory Number of seats
New South Wales 47 seats
Victoria 37 seats
Queensland 30 seats
Western Australia 16 seats
South Australia 11 seats
Tasmania 5 seats
Australian Capital Territory 2 seats
Northern Territory 2 seats
TOTAL 150 seats

Notional seat status

Since the 2013 federal election, the boundaries of seats in New South Wales, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have been redrawn. The names of some seats in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory have also changed.

At each election after a redistribution, the AEC calculates the notional seat status for each seat in a redistributed state/territory. The notional seat status is the margin that a party (candidate) would have won the seat by using 2013 federal election voting patterns and applying them to the redrawn boundaries.

These calculations will be used by the AEC’s tally room at the 2016 federal election to provide swings on a TPP basis. As a result, this fact sheet lists the notional TPP margin for the seats in the affected states and the ACT.

‘Non-classic’ results

Historically, almost all of the contests for election to the House of Representatives result in the ‘final two’ candidates being ALP and Coalition candidates.

At the 2013 federal election this was the case in 139 out of 150 seats. The remaining eleven seats are categorised by the AEC as ‘non-classic’.

A TPP count is also conducted by the AEC in ‘non-classic’ seats for statistical purposes. This count notionally allocates votes to the leading ALP and Coalition party candidates using the next available preference on the ballot papers to show what the result would have been had these candidates been the two leading candidates. State/Territory and national TPP swings can then be estimated for statistical purposes.

All statistical information is expressed as TPP. TPP calculations for ‘non-classic’ seats are indicated by an asterisk.

A separate table provides TCP information for these eleven ‘non-classic’ seats, including post-redistribution notional seat status for the three affected seats.

Two party preferred (TPP) margins

New South Wales (notional post-redistribution margins)
Electorate ALP LP/NP Notional party Status Swing required
Banks 47.20 52.80 LP M 2.80
Barton** 54.39 45.61 ALP M 4.39
Bennelong 42.23 57.77 LP FS 7.77
Berowra 30.95 69.05 LP S 19.05
Blaxland 61.24 38.76 ALP S 11.24
Bradfield 29.06 70.94 LP S 20.94
Calare 35.03 64.97 NP S 14.97
Chifley 60.93 39.07 ALP S 10.93
Cook 34.29 65.71 LP S 15.71
Cowper 36.76 63.24 NP S 13.24
Cunningham 61.29 38.71 ALP S 11.29
Dobell** 50.18 49.82 ALP M 0.18
Eden-Monaro 47.09 52.91 LP M 2.91
Farrer 28.29 71.71 LP S 21.71
Fowler 62.89 37.11 ALP S 12.89
Gilmore 46.22 53.78 LP M 3.78
Grayndler 68.76 31.24 ALP S 18.76
Greenway 52.98 47.02 ALP M 2.98
Hughes 38.19 61.81 LP S 11.81
Hume 36.42 63.58 LP S 13.58
Hunter (Previously named Charlton) 55.68 44.32 ALP M 5.68
Kingsford Smith 52.74 47.26 ALP M 2.74
Lindsay 47.01 52.99 LP M 2.99
Lyne 36.48 63.52 NP S 13.52
Macarthur 46.61 53.39 LP M 3.39
Mackellar 31.16 68.84 LP S 18.84
Macquarie 45.52 54.48 LP M 4.48
McMahon 54.63 45.37 ALP M 4.63
Mitchell 28.61 71.39 LP S 21.39
New England* 30.46 69.54 NP * 19.54
Newcastle 59.40 40.60 ALP FS 9.40
North Sydney 34.29 65.71 LP S 15.71
Page 46.90 53.10 NP M 3.10
Parkes 30.03 69.97 NP S 19.97
Parramatta 51.32 48.68 ALP M 1.32
Paterson** 50.27 49.73 ALP M 0.27
Reid 46.67 53.33 LP M 3.33
Richmond 51.58 48.42 ALP M 1.58
Riverina 31.01 68.99 NP S 18.99
Robertson 46.91 53.09 LP M 3.09
Shortland 57.40 42.60 ALP FS 7.40
Sydney 62.87 37.13 ALP S 12.87
Warringah 34.68 65.32 LP S 15.32
Watson 58.82 41.18 ALP FS 8.82
Wentworth 31.08 68.92 LP S 18.92
Werriwa 56.53 43.47 ALP FS 6.53
Whitlam (Previously named Throsby) 56.91 43.09 ALP FS 6.91

* indicates non-classic seats.

** indicates seats where the party status has notionally changed as a result of the redistribution. The seats of Barton, Dobell and Paterson currently have Liberal sitting members.

Note: Margins for NSW seats at the 2013 federal election (pre-redistribution).

Victoria
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected (2013) Status Swing required
Aston 41.80 58.20 LP FS 8.20
Ballarat 54.89 45.11 ALP M 4.89
Batman* 70.98 29.02 ALP * 20.98
Bendigo 51.26 48.74 ALP M 1.26
Bruce 51.80 48.20 ALP M 1.80
Calwell 63.86 36.14 ALP S 13.86
Casey 42.83 57.17 LP FS 7.17
Chisholm 51.60 48.40 ALP M 1.60
Corangamite 46.06 53.94 LP M 3.94
Corio 57.75 42.25 ALP FS 7.75
Deakin 46.82 53.18 LP M 3.18
Dunkley 44.43 55.57 LP M 5.57
Flinders 38.19 61.81 LP S 11.81
Gellibrand 66.53 33.47 ALP S 16.53
Gippsland 34.16 65.84 NP S 15.84
Goldstein 38.97 61.03 LP S 11.03
Gorton 66.12 33.88 ALP S 16.12
Higgins 40.07 59.93 LP FS 9.93
Holt 59.09 40.91 ALP FS 9.09
Hotham 57.27 42.73 ALP FS 7.27
Indi* 40.90 59.10 IND * 9.10
Isaacs 53.86 46.14 ALP M 3.86
Jagajaga 53.13 46.87 ALP M 3.13
Kooyong 38.94 61.06 LP S 11.06
La Trobe 45.99 54.01 LP M 4.01
Lalor 62.16 37.84 ALP S 12.16
Mallee* 26.34 73.66 NP * 23.66
Maribyrnong 61.39 38.61 ALP S 11.39
McEwen 50.15 49.85 ALP M 0.15
McMillan 38.17 61.83 LP S 11.83
Melbourne* 69.25 30.75 GRN * 19.25
Melbourne Ports 53.56 46.44 ALP M 3.56
Menzies 35.55 64.45 LP S 14.45
Murray 29.13 70.87 LP S 20.87
Scullin 64.35 35.65 ALP S 14.35
Wannon 39.93 60.07 LP S 10.07
Wills* 70.76 29.24 ALP * 20.76
Queensland
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected (2013) Status Swing required
Blair 55.26 44.74 ALP M 5.26
Bonner 46.31 53.69 LNP M 3.69
Bowman 41.14 58.86 LNP FS 8.86
Brisbane 45.72 54.28 LNP M 4.28
Capricornia 49.23 50.77 LNP M 0.77
Dawson 42.42 57.58 LNP FS 7.58
Dickson 43.28 56.72 LNP FS 6.72
Fadden 35.64 64.36 LNP S 14.36
Fairfax* 38.32 61.68 PUP * 11.68*
Fisher 40.25 59.75 LNP FS 9.75
Flynn 43.47 56.53 LNP FS 6.53
Forde 45.62 54.38 LNP M 4.38
Griffith 53.01 46.99 ALP M 3.01
Groom 33.53 66.47 LNP S 16.47
Herbert 43.83 56.17 LNP FS 6.17
Hinkler 40.96 59.04 LNP FS 9.04
Kennedy* 32.85 67.15 KAP * 17.15*
Leichhardt 44.32 55.68 LNP M 5.68
Lilley 51.32 48.68 ALP M 1.32
Longman 43.08 56.92 LNP FS 6.92
Maranoa 27.72 72.28 LNP S 22.28
McPherson 37.00 63.00 LNP S 13.00
Moncrieff 32.05 67.95 LNP S 17.95
Moreton 51.55 48.45 ALP M 1.55
Oxley 53.77 46.23 ALP M 3.77
Petrie 49.47 50.53 LNP M 0.53
Rankin 54.78 45.22 ALP M 4.78
Ryan 41.46 58.54 LNP FS 8.54
Wide Bay 36.84 63.16 LNP S 13.16
Wright 38.16 61.84 LNP S 11.84
Western Australia (notional post-redistribution margins)
Electorate ALP LP/NP Notional party Status Swing required
Brand 53.71 46.29 ALP M 3.71
Burt (New seat) 43.91 56.09 LP FS 6.09
Canning 38.65 61.35 LP S 11.35
Cowan 45.48 54.52 LP M 4.52
Curtin 31.78 68.22 LP S 18.22
Durack* 34.96 65.04 LP * 15.04
Forrest 36.19 63.81 LP S 13.81
Fremantle 55.40 44.60 ALP M 5.4
Hasluck 43.98 56.02 LP FS 6.02
Moore 37.56 62.44 LP S 12.44
O’Connor* 34.58 65.42 LP * 15.42
Pearce 40.69 59.31 LP FS 9.31
Perth 52.18 47.82 ALP M 2.18
Stirling 41.03 58.97 LP FS 8.79
Swan 42.66 57.34 LP FS 7.34
Tangney 36.98 63.02 LP S 13.02

Note: Margins for WA seats at the 2013 federal election (pre-redistribution)

South Australia
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected (2013) Status Swing required
Adelaide 53.95 46.05 ALP M 3.95
Barker 33.45 66.55 LP S 16.55
Boothby 42.88 57.12 LP FS 7.12
Grey 36.46 63.54 LP S 13.54
Hindmarsh 48.11 51.89 LP M 1.89
Kingston 59.70 40.30 ALP FS 9.70
Makin 55.06 44.94 ALP M 5.06
Mayo 37.49 62.51 LP S 12.51
Port Adelaide 64.02 35.98 ALP S 14.02
Sturt 39.92 60.08 LP S 10.08
Wakefield 53.40 46.60 ALP M 3.40
Tasmania
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected (2013) Status Swing required
Bass 45.96 54.04 LP M 4.04
Braddon 47.44 52.56 LP M 2.56
Denison* 58.91 41.09 IND * 8.91
Franklin 55.09 44.91 ALP M 5.09
Lyons 48.78 51.22 LP M 1.22
Australian Capital Territory (notional post-redistribution margins)
Electorate ALP LP/NP Notional party Status Swing required
Canberra 57.51 42.49 ALP FS 7.51
Fenner (Previously named Fraser) 62.49 37.51 ALP S 12.49

Note: Margins for ACT seats at the 2013 federal election (pre-redistribution)

Northern Territory
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected (2013) Status Swing required
Lingiari 50.88 49.12 ALP M 0.88
Solomon 48.60 51.40 CLP M 1.40

‘Non-classic’ seats

Two candidate preferred (TCP) margins

At the 2013 federal election there were eleven seats where the top two candidates did not comprise of both the ALP and the Coalition. These seats are commonly referred to as ‘non-classic’ contests.

The TCP margins for the eleven non-classic seats are:

TCP margins – Non-classic seats
State Electorate Leading party TCP Other party TCP Status Swing required
NSW New England NP 63.17 IND 36.83 S 13.17
VIC Batman ALP 60.61 GRN 39.39 S 10.61
Indi IND 50.25 LP 49.75 M 0.25
Mallee LP 56.21 NP 43.79 FS 6.21
Melbourne GRN 55.27 ALP 44.73 M 5.27
Wills ALP 65.20 GRN 34.80 S 15.20
QLD Fairfax PUP 50.03 LNP 49.97 M 0.03
Kennedy KAP 52.19 LNP 47.81 M 2.19
WA Durack LP 54.29 NP 45.71 M 4.29
O’Connor NP 50.76 LP 49.24 M 0.76
TAS Denison IND 65.51 ALP 34.49 S 15.51

Note: The status of non-classic seats in NSW and WA include notional post-redistribution statistics.

Further information

Contact the AEC’s national media team at media@aec.gov.au | 02 6271 4415.