The AEC has been informed by the ABS that there was an error in the initial enrolment projections supplied for use in the redistribution of Victoria.
The ABS has provided the AEC with revised enrolment projections data. This revised enrolment projection data is available on this website.
These revisions do not impact Victoria’s entitlement to 38 electoral divisions at the next general election or the projection time for this redistribution.
Receipt of the new data will not affect the ability of the Redistribution Committee to develop its proposed electoral division boundaries and release its proposed redistributions in accordance with the current indicative timeframe (the second quarter of this year).
Projection time
The projection time for a redistribution is calculated in accordance with section 63A of the Electoral Act.
The “starting time” to calculate is the date when the augmented Electoral Commission will cause the names and boundaries of electoral divisions in Victoria to be published in the Gazette.
For this redistribution, the starting time is 17 October 2024.
The standard projection time of three years and six months will apply for this redistribution.
The projection time for this redistribution is therefore 17 April 2028.
Projected enrolment quota
The projected enrolment quota is calculated by dividing the projected number of people enrolled in Victoria at the projection time by the number of members of the House of Representatives to which Victoria is entitled.
|
Estimated total number of electors enrolled in Victoria at the projection time (Monday 17 April 2028) |
4,835,048 |
|
Number of members of the House of Representatives to which Victoria is entitled |
38 |
|
Projected enrolment quota for Victoria |
127,238 |
|
Permissible maximum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota + 3.5%) |
131,691 |
|
Permissible minimum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota – 3.5%) |
122,785 |
Enrolment projections for Victoria: by electoral division, SA2 and SA1
Enrolment projections as at Monday 17 April 2028 for each electoral division in Victoria by Statistical Area 2 (SA2) and Statistical Area 1 (SA1). The percentage growth is also indicated.
- Victoria – SA1 – actual enrolment, revised projected enrolment and growth rate
- Victoria – SA1 – actual enrolment, revised projected enrolment and growth rate by Division
These files include the revised enrolment projections data provided by the ABS.
Please note the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) is an area defined in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), and consists of one or more whole Statistical Areas Level 1 (SA1s). Wherever possible SA2s are based on officially gazetted Victorian suburbs and localities. In urban areas SA2s largely conform to whole suburbs and combinations of whole suburbs, while in rural areas they define functional zones of social and economic links. Geography is also taken into account in SA2 design.
The SA1s and SA2s used for this redistribution are those which applied at the 2021 Census of Population and Housing.
Victoria small area population and enrolment projections
This paper, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used for producing Victoria's projected enrolment at Monday 17 April 2028 by electoral divisions and SA1.
Explanatory notes
This paper, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, provides some information about SA1 population estimates.
Differences between federal and state/territory electoral rolls
There is a federal electoral roll and an electoral roll for each state and territory. This is because each jurisdiction in Australia has their own electoral legislation, with electors subject to both federal and state/territory legislative requirements which may differ. It is these legislative differences which cause roll divergence. The causes of roll divergence can be categorised into two types:
- divergence caused by differences in qualifications and disqualifications for enrolment and voting, and
- divergence caused by differences in the process undertaken to enrol and maintain the currency of enrolment details.
Either type of divergence may result in an elector being enrolled for electoral events at one government level but not the other, or enrolled at different addresses for different levels of government.