Enrolment projections - Tasmanian federal redistribution

Updated: 2 November 2016

Projected enrolment quota

The projected enrolment quota is calculated by dividing the projected number of people enrolled in Tasmania at the projection time by the number of members of the House of Representatives to which Tasmania is entitled
Estimated total number of electors enrolled in Tasmania at the projection time (14 May 2021) 384 915
Number of members of the House of Representatives to which Tasmania is entitled 5
Projected enrolment quota for Tasmania 76 983
Permissible maximum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota + 3.5%) 79 677
Permissible minimum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota – 3.5%) 74 289

Enrolment projections for Tasmania: by electoral division, SA2 and SA1

Enrolment projections as at 1 September 2016 for each electoral division in Tasmania by Statistical Area 2 (SA2) and Statistical Area 1 (SA1). The percentage growth is also indicated.

Please note the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) is an area defined in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), and consists of one or more whole Statistical Areas Level 1 (SA1s). Wherever possible SA2s are based on officially gazetted State/Territory suburbs and localities. In urban areas SA2s largely conform to whole suburbs and combinations of whole suburbs, while in rural areas they define functional zones of social and economic links. Geography is also taken into account in SA2 design.

The SA1s and SA2s used for this redistribution are those which applied at the 2011 Census of Population and Housing.

Appendix 1: Tasmania small area population projections

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used for producing population and enrolment projections for all Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) in Tasmania, from June 2015 to June 2021.

Appendix 2: Projection methods for Tasmania, Statistical Area 2s (SA2s) and Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) – more details

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gives a more detailed breakdown of the three tiered approach outlined in Appendix 1. The report outlines projection methods for Tasmania, Statistical Area 2s (SA2s) and Statistical Area 1s (SA1s).

Appendix 3: Conversion of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Population Projections to Enrolment Projections

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used to calculate enrolment projections for each Statistical Area Level 1 (SA1).

Differences between federal and state/territory electoral rolls

There is a federal electoral roll and an electoral roll for each state and territory. This is because each jurisdiction in Australia has their own electoral legislation, with electors subject to both federal and state/territory legislative requirements which may differ. It is these legislative differences which cause roll divergence. The causes of roll divergence can be categorised into two types:

  • divergence caused by differences in qualifications and disqualifications for enrolment and voting, and
  • divergence caused by differences in the process undertaken to enrol and maintain the currency of enrolment details.

Either type of divergence may result in an elector being enrolled for electoral events at one government level but not the other, or enrolled at different addresses for different levels of government.