National seat status (June 2013)

Updated: 26 November 2014

This fact sheet lists the seat status for all federal electoral divisions as a result of the 2010 federal election. In addition, the notional seat status for all electoral divisions in Victoria and South Australia is listed, these states having undergone a redistribution after the 2010 federal election.

Seats in the House of Representatives

The number of seats to be elected in the House of Representatives at the next federal election, including the number that each state and territory is entitled to, is determined by the Electoral Commissioner using official population figures.

The entitlement determination, made in September 2011, was that a total of 150 seats will be contested at the 2013 federal election for the House of Representatives. This is the same number as at the 2010 federal election. The number to be elected by each state and territory, also the same as at the 2010 election, is detailed in the table below:

The number of seats to be elected in the House of Representatives at the next federal election
State Number of seats
New South Wales 48 seats
Victoria 37 seats
Queensland 30 seats
Western Australia 15 seats
South Australia 11 seats
Tasmania 5 seats
Australian Capital Territory 2 seats
Northern Territory 2 seats

How is seat status defined?

Each electoral division is classified in terms of its seat status. Seat status is generally based on the two-party preferred vote (TPP) count undertaken at the previous federal election. The TPP count in each electoral division requires a full distribution of preferences to the leading candidates for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and the Liberal or National parties (Coalition).

The AEC classifies seats as follows:

  • marginal (M): when the leading party receives less than 56 per cent of the TPP vote
  • fairly safe (FS): when leading party receives between 56-60 per cent of the TPP vote
  • safe (S): when a leading party receives more than 60 per cent of the TPP vote.

Redistributions of electoral boundaries since 2010 election

Following the 2010 federal election, a redistribution of federal electoral divisions was conducted in Victoria in 2010 and in South Australia in 2011 because seven years had passed since the last redistribution in either state. For both states there was no change to the number of electoral divisions to which they were entitled to. The redistribution processes redrew the boundaries to ensure similar numbers of voters in the electoral divisions within Victoria and South Australia respectively, in accordance with the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. The new boundaries will come into effect at the 2013 federal election.

Notional seat status

After a redistribution, the AEC calculates the notional seat status for each electoral division where boundary changes have occurred. The notional seat status estimates the margin that a party (candidate) would have won the seat by using 2010 federal election voting patterns and applying them to the redrawn boundaries.

These calculations will be used by the AEC's computers and virtual tally room at the next election, including on election night, to provide swings on a TPP basis. The swing is the difference between the performance of a candidate or party at one election in comparison to the other.

What about when the final two candidates are not ALP and Coalition candidates?

Historically, almost all of the contests for election to the House of Representatives result in the final two ('top two') candidates being ALP and Coalition candidates.

At the 2010 federal election this was the case in 142 out of 150 seats. The remaining eight seats were categorised by the AEC as "non-classic" contests in the electoral divisions of Batman, Denison, Grayndler, Kennedy, Lyne, Melbourne, New England and O'Connor, where the final two candidates were not ALP and Coalition. For "non-classic" contests, the count after all preferences have been distributed is called Two Candidate Preferred (TCP).

A further scrutiny for information (TPP count) is later conducted by the AEC in these seats for statistical purposes. This count notionally allocates votes to the leading ALP and Coalition party candidates using the next available preference on the ballot papers to show what the result of the count would have been had these candidates been the two leading candidates. State and/or Territory wide or national TPP swings can then be estimated for statistical purposes.

In the tables following, there are two lists each for Victoria and South Australia. The first table shows the 2010 federal election results and the second provides the states' post-redistribution notional seat status.

The following information is expressed in TPP terms. TPP calculations for "non-classic" electoral divisions are indicated by an asterisk (*).

Two Party Preferred Margins

Election Results 2010 – New South Wales
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Banks 51.45 48.55 ALP M 1.45
Barton 56.86 43.14 ALP FS 6.86
Bennelong 46.88 53.12 LP M 3.12
Berowra 33.80 66.20 LP S 16.20
Blaxland 62.23 37.77 ALP S 12.23
Bradfield 31.82 68.18 LP S 18.18
Calare 39.26 60.74 NP S 10.74
Charlton 62.67 37.33 ALP S 12.67
Chifley 62.34 37.66 ALP S 12.34
Cook 37.34 62.66 LP S 12.66
Cowper 40.73 59.27 NP FS 9.27
Cunningham 63.17 36.83 ALP S 13.17
Dobell 55.07 44.93 ALP M 5.07
Eden-Monaro 54.24 45.76 ALP M 4.24
Farrer 35.49 64.51 LP S 14.51
Fowler 58.76 41.24 ALP FS 8.76
Gilmore 44.68 55.32 LP M 5.32
Grayndler* 70.63 29.37 ALP * 20.63*
Greenway 50.88 49.12 ALP M 0.88
Hughes 44.83 55.17 LP M 5.17
Hume 41.28 58.72 LP FS 8.72
Hunter 62.48 37.52 ALP S 12.48
Kingsford Smith 55.16 44.84 ALP M 5.16
Lindsay 51.12 48.88 ALP M 1.12
Lyne* 37.55 62.45 IND * 12.45*
Macarthur 46.98 53.02 LP M 3.02
Mackellar 34.28 65.72 LP S 15.72
Macquarie 48.74 51.26 LP M 1.26
McMahon 57.81 42.19 ALP FS 7.81
Mitchell 32.84 67.16 LP S 17.16
New England* 33.20 66.80 IND * 16.80*
Newcastle 62.49 37.51 ALP S 12.49
North Sydney 35.94 64.06 LP S 14.06
Page 54.19 45.81 ALP M 4.19
Parkes 31.14 68.86 NP S 18.86
Parramatta 54.37 45.63 ALP M 4.37
Paterson 44.67 55.33 LP M 5.33
Reid 52.68 47.32 ALP M 2.68
Richmond 56.99 43.01 ALP FS 6.99
Riverina 31.83 68.17 NP S 18.17
Robertson 51.00 49.00 ALP M 1.00
Shortland 62.85 37.15 ALP S 12.85
Sydney 67.07 32.93 ALP S 17.07
Throsby 62.11 37.89 ALP S 12.11
Warringah 36.91 63.09 LP S 13.09
Watson 59.14 40.86 ALP FS 9.14
Wentworth 35.14 64.86 LP S 14.86
Werriwa 56.75 43.25 ALP FS 6.75
Election Results 2010 " Victoria
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Aston 48.24 51.76 LP M 1.76
Ballarat 61.70 38.30 ALP S 11.70
Batman* 74.91 25.09 ALP * 24.91*
Bendigo 59.53 40.47 ALP FS 9.53
Bruce 58.12 41.88 ALP FS 8.12
Calwell 69.72 30.28 ALP S 19.72
Casey 45.82 54.18 LP M 4.18
Chisholm 56.11 43.89 ALP FS 6.11
Corangamite 50.41 49.59 ALP M 0.41
Corio 64.22 35.78 ALP S 14.22
Deakin 52.41 47.59 ALP M 2.41
Dunkley 48.98 51.02 LP M 1.02
Flinders 40.89 59.11 LP FS 9.11
Gellibrand 73.90 26.10 ALP S 23.90
Gippsland 38.55 61.45 NP S 11.45
Goldstein 43.53 56.47 LP FS 6.47
Gorton 72.16 27.84 ALP S 22.16
Higgins 43.25 56.75 LP FS 6.75
Holt 63.23 36.77 ALP S 13.23
Hotham 63.50 36.50 ALP S 13.50
Indi 40.06 59.94 LP FS 19.94
Isaacs 61.02 38.98 ALP S 11.02
Jagajaga 61.52 38.48 ALP S 11.52
Kooyong 42.45 57.55 LP FS 7.5
La Trobe 50.91 49.09 ALP M 0.91
Lalor 72.15 27.85 ALP S 22.15
Mallee 25.59 74.41 NP S 24.41
Maribyrnong 66.86 33.14 ALP S 16.86
McEwen 55.32 44.68 ALP M 5.32
McMillan 45.59 54.41 LP M 4.41
Melbourne* 73.30 26.70 GRN * 23.30
Melbourne Ports 57.56 42.44 ALP FS 7.56
Menzies 41.28 58.72 LP FS 8.72
Murray 29.65 70.35 LP S 20.35
Scullin 72.25 27.75 ALP S 22.25
Wannon 42.71 57.29 LP FS 7.29
Wills 72.64 27.36 ALP S 22.64
Post Redistribution 2010 " Victoria " Notional Seat Status
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Aston 49.33 50.67 LP M 0.67
Ballarat 61.70 38.30 ALP S 11.70
Batman* 74.80 25.20 ALP * 24.80
Bendigo 59.42 40.58 ALP FS 9.42
Bruce 57.71 42.29 ALP FS 7.71
Calwell 70.06 29.94 ALP S 20.06
Casey 48.14 51.86 LP M 1.86
Chisholm 55.78 44.22 ALP M 5.78
Corangamite 50.28 49.72 ALP M 0.28
Corio 63.47 36.53 ALP S 13.47
Deakin 50.60 49.40 ALP M 0.60
Dunkley 48.96 51.04 LP M 1.04
Flinders 40.86 59.14 LP FS 9.14
Gellibrand 74.13 25.87 ALP S 24.13
Gippsland 38.55 61.45 NP S 11.45
Goldstein 43.99 56.01 LP FS 6.01
Gorton 73.63 26.37 ALP S 23.63
Higgins 44.60 55.40 LP M 5.40
Holt 63.97 36.03 ALP S 13.97
Hotham 63.96 58.99 ALP S 13.96
Indi 41.01 58.99 LP FS 8.99
Isaacs 60.41 39.59 ALP S 10.41
Jagajaga 61.15 38.85 ALP S 11.15
Kooyong 42.55 57.45 LP FS 7.45
La Trobe 51.66 48.34 ALP M 1.66
Lalor 72.12 27.88 ALP S 22.12
Mallee 26.74 73.26 NP S 23.26
Maribyrnong 67.49 32.51 ALP S 17.49
McEwen 59.18 40.82 ALP FS 9.18
McMillan 45.79 54.21 LP M 4.21
Melbourne* 72.77 27.23 GRN * 22.77*
Melbourne Ports 57.89 42.11 ALP FS 7.89
Menzies 41.35 58.65 LP FS 8.65
Murray 30.42 69.58 LP S 19.58
Scullin 70.53 29.47 ALP S 20.53
Wannon 44.34 55.66 LP M 5.66
Wills 73.53 26.47 ALP S 23.53
Election Results 2010 – Queensland
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Blair 54.24 45.76 ALP M 4.24
Bonner 47.18 52.82 LNP M 2.82
Bowman 39.61 60.39 LNP S 10.39
Brisbane 48.87 51.13 LNP M 1.13
Capricornia 53.68 46.32 ALP M 3.68
Dawson 47.57 52.43 LNP M 2.43
Dickson 44.87 55.13 LNP M 5.13
Fadden 35.81 64.19 LNP S 14.19
Fairfax 43.05 56.95 LNP FS 6.95
Fisher 45.87 54.13 LNP M 4.13
Flynn 46.42 53.58 LNP M 3.58
Forde 48.37 51.63 LNP M 1.63
Griffith 58.46 41.54 ALP FS 8.46
Groom 31.47 68.53 LNP S 18.53
Herbert 47.83 52.17 LNP M 2.17
Hinkler 39.61 60.39 LNP S 10.39
Kennedy* 38.06 61.94 IND * 11.94*
Leichhardt 45.45 54.55 LNP M 4.55
Lilley 53.18 46.82 ALP M 3.18
Longman 48.08 51.92 LNP M 1.92
Maranoa 27.11 72.89 LNP S 22.89
McPherson 39.72 60.28 LNP S 10.28
Moncrieff 32.51 67.49 LNP S 17.49
Moreton 51.13 48.87 ALP M 1.13
Oxley 55.77 44.23 ALP M 5.77
Petrie 52.51 47.49 ALP M 2.51
Rankin 55.41 44.59 ALP M 5.41
Ryan 42.84 57.16 LNP FS 7.16
Wide Bay 34.39 65.61 LNP S 15.61
Wright 39.85 60.15 LNP S 10.15
Election Results 2010 – Western Australia
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Brand 53.33 46.67 ALP M 3.33
Canning 47.81 52.19 LP M 2.19
Cowan 43.71 56.29 LP FS 6.29
Curtin 33.81 66.19 LP S 16.19
Durack 36.33 63.67 LP S 13.67
Forrest 41.26 58.74 LP FS 8.74
Fremantle 55.70 44.30 ALP M 5.70
Hasluck 49.43 50.57 LP M 0.57
Moore 38.81 61.19 LP S 11.19
O'Connor* 27.00 73.00 NP * 23.00*
Pearce 41.14 58.86 LP FS 8.86
Perth 55.88 44.12 ALP M 5.88
Stirling 44.45 55.55 LP M 5.55
Swan 47.47 52.53 LP M 2.53
Tangney 37.68 62.32 LP S 12.32
Election Results 2010 – South Australia
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Adelaide 57.69 42.31 ALP FS 7.69
Barker 37.12 62.88 LP S 12.88
Boothby 49.25 50.75 LP M 0.75
Grey 38.84 61.16 LP S 11.16
Hindmarsh 55.70 44.30 ALP M 5.70
Kingston 63.91 36.09 ALP S 13.91
Makin 62.20 37.80 ALP S 12.20
Mayo 42.65 57.35 LP FS 7.35
Port Adelaide 70.03 29.97 ALP S 20.03
Sturt 46.57 53.43 LP M 3.43
Wakefield 61.95 38.05 ALP S 11.95
Post Redistribution 2011 – South Australia – Notional Seat Status
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Adelaide 57.52 42.48 ALP FS 7.52
Barker 36.99 63.01 LP S 13.01
Boothby 49.38 50.62 LP M 0.62
Grey 38.84 61.16 LP S 11.16
Hindmarsh 56.08 43.92 ALP FS 6.08
Kingston 64.55 35.45 ALP S 14.55
Makin 62.00 38.00 ALP S 12.00
Mayo 42.71 57.29 LP FS 7.29
Port Adelaide 70.91 29.09 ALP S 20.91
Sturt 46.40 53.60 LP M 3.60
Wakefield 60.53 39.47 ALP S 10.53
Election Results 2010 – Tasmania
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Bass 56.74 43.26 ALP FS 6.74
Braddon 57.48 42.52 ALP FS 7.48
Denison* 65.82 34.18 IND * 15.82*
Franklin 60.82 39.18 ALP S 10.82
Lyons 62.29 37.71 ALP S 12.29
Election Results 2010 – Australian Capital Territory
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Canberra 59.15 40.85 ALP FS 9.15
Fraser 64.20 35.80 ALP S 14.20
Election Results 2010 – Northern Territory
Electorate ALP LP/NP Elected Status Swing required
Lingiari 53.70 46.30 ALP M 3.70
Solomon 48.25 51.75 CLP M 1.75

Two Candidate Preferred Margins ("Non-classic seats")

At the 2010 election there were eight electorates where the final two candidates were not the ALP and the Coalition. The AEC commonly refers to these as "non-classic" contests, and after preferences have been distributed for the two final candidates the results are described as Two Candidate Preferred (TCP). The divisions were Batman, Denison, Grayndler, Kennedy, Lyne, Melbourne, New England and O'Connor. The TCP results were:

Two Candidate Preferred Vote – Election Results 2010
State Electorate TCP (a) TCP (b) Elected Status Swing required
NSW Grayndler 54.23 (ALP) 45.77 (GRN) ALP M 4.23
Lyne 62.73 (IND) 37.27 (NP) IND S 12.73
New England 71.52 (IND) 28.48 (NP) IND S 21.52
VIC Batman 57.86 (ALP) 42.14 (GRN) ALP FS 7.86
Melbourne 56.04 (GRN) 43.96 (ALP) GRN FS 6.04
QLD Kennedy 68.34 (IND) 31.66 (LNQ) IND S 18.34
WA O'Connor 46.44 (LP) 53.56 (NP) NP M 3.56
TAS Denison 51.21 (IND) 48.79 (ALP) IND M 1.21

In these electorates, a further scrutiny for information (TPP count) was also conducted for statistical purposes and is included in the TPP tables in this publication. This count notionally allocates votes to the leading ALP and Coalition party candidates using the next available preference on the ballot papers to show what the result of the count would have had these ALP/Coalition been the two leading candidates.

The divisions of Batman and Melbourne were part of the 2010 Victorian redistribution and have a revised notional TCP seat status as follows:

Two Candidate Preferred Vote – Post redistribution 2010 – Notional status
State Electorate TCP (a) TCP (b) Elected Status Swing required
VIC Batman 57.75 (ALP) 42.25 (GRN) ALP FS 7.75
Melbourne 55.91 (GRN) 44.09 (ALP) GRN M 5.91

Further information

Contact the AEC National Media Unit or the media liaison officer in your state or territory.

Please note: The terms 'seat', 'electorate' and 'electoral division' are used interchangeably in this fact sheet.